Salem, Oregon — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM_2.5 and 48-hour smoke-model outlook — updated Oct 14, 5:38PM PDT

Current air quality and forecast

Now · observedGood 3 µg/m³ NowCast median across 6 monitors in East Central Willamette Valley · range 2–3, highest at Turner - CJHS

Next 48 hoursModerate 0–16 µg/m³ · 3 models

Forecast peak16 µg/m³Oct 16, 11:00AM · FireWork

No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Last 24 hours across East Central Willamette Valley & next 48 hours forecast

range across monitors

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate

Forecast

Next 6 hours

0–7 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 11:00PM

Next 12 hours

0–9 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 15, 5:00AM

Next 24 hours

0–12 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 15, 10:00AM

Next 48 hours

0–16 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 16, 11:00AM

Next 24 hours — model comparison 3 models · 24-hour peak table

Model	Peak PM2.5	Peak around
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)	0 µg/m³	Oct 15, 10:00AM
FireWork (ECCC)	12 µg/m³	Oct 15, 10:00AM
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)	0 µg/m³	Oct 14, 9:00PM

Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Salem; FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM_2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now

Clear sky

● At the ground · ● Overhead (if mixed down)

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed

Nearby fires

100 mi radius

Within 100 mi, agencies report 5 Mostly contained (70%+) · 1 Other.

Not contained0 fires

No not contained fires are reported in this state.

Partially contained0 fires

No partially contained fires are reported in this state.

Mostly contained (70%+)5 fires

THE NARROWS

48 mi away · 305 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

AUSTIN

54 mi away · 12,888 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

GRASSHOPPER

77 mi away · 93,972 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-15 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

HIGH LAVA

79 mi away · 2,899 acres · 95% contained · reported 2026-10-08 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Bench

85 mi away · 67,071 acres · 90% contained · reported 2026-10-14 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Other status1 fire

Oak

25 mi away · reported 2026-10-12 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Containment not reported

Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC); incident points and containment as reported by the responsible agencies.

Forecast track record here

29-day record · 12 nearby monitors

Model	Typical error	Tendency
FireWork	2.9 µg/m³	reads high 1.8
HRRR-Smoke	4.4 µg/m³	reads low 4.0
FireSmoke	4.5 µg/m³	reads low 3.6

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Monitors in East Central Willamette Valley

Turner - CJHS3 µg/m³ NowCast11 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Salem - State Hospital3 µg/m³ NowCast1.4 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Portland - Spangler Road3 µg/m³ NowCast31 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Woodburn Chemeketa Community College2 µg/m³ NowCast16 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Silverton2 µg/m³ NowCast13 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Salem Chemeketa Community College2 µg/m³ NowCast3.7 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality

See the Oregon-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Oregon: Portland · Eugene · Bend · Medford · Klamath Falls · Roseburg · Pendleton · La Grande · The Dalles