Bend, Oregon — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM_2.5 and 48-hour smoke-model outlook — updated Oct 14, 5:38PM PDT

Current air quality and forecast

Now · observedGood 2 µg/m³ NowCast median across 5 monitors in Central Oregon · range 2–3, highest at Madras - Westside School

Next 48 hoursModerate 0–24 µg/m³ · 3 models

Forecast peak24 µg/m³Oct 15, 10:00AM · FireWork

No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Last 24 hours across Central Oregon & next 48 hours forecast

range across monitors

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate

Forecast

Next 6 hours

0–16 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM

Next 12 hours

0–16 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM

Next 24 hours

0–24 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 15, 10:00AM

Next 48 hours

0–24 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 15, 10:00AM

Next 24 hours — model comparison 3 models · 24-hour peak table

Model	Peak PM2.5	Peak around
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)	0 µg/m³	Oct 14, 7:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)	24 µg/m³	Oct 15, 10:00AM
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)	0 µg/m³	Oct 15, 6:00PM

Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Bend; FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM_2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now

Clear sky

● At the ground · ● Overhead (if mixed down)

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed

Nearby fires

100 mi radius

Within 100 mi, agencies report 20 Mostly contained (70%+).

Not contained0 fires

No not contained fires are reported in this state.

Partially contained0 fires

No partially contained fires are reported in this state.

Mostly contained (70%+)20 fires

Bench

40 mi away · 67,071 acres · 90% contained · reported 2026-10-14 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0611 GREEN MOUNTAIN

41 mi away · 2,136 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0433 BREWER

42 mi away · 70,821 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0512 BOX SPRINGS

57 mi away · 21,432 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0485 DEEP CANYON

61 mi away · 9,170 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0501 PAT'S CABIN

67 mi away · 772 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0432

71 mi away · 2,183 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

ROWE CREEK COMPLEX

72 mi away · 373,928 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0502

73 mi away · 1,816 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0442 REDROCK

73 mi away · 256 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

AUSTIN

74 mi away · 12,888 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0444 TWICKENHAM

74 mi away · 254 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0445 CROSSWHITE

75 mi away · 342,923 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0450 COVE CREEK

78 mi away · 7,208 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0446 CAMEL HUMP

79 mi away · 6,789 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

GRASSHOPPER

83 mi away · 93,972 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-15 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

THE NARROWS

84 mi away · 305 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

0489 PARRISH

86 mi away · 404 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Castle

90 mi away · 3,615 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-10 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Second Flat

98 mi away · 105,854 acres · 99% contained · reported 2026-10-14 · OR

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC); incident points and containment as reported by the responsible agencies.

Forecast track record here

29-day record · 9 nearby monitors

Model	Typical error	Tendency
HRRR-Smoke	3.8 µg/m³	reads low 3.8
FireSmoke	4.0 µg/m³	reads low 3.4
FireWork	6.1 µg/m³	reads high 4.5

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Monitors in Central Oregon

Madras - Westside School3 µg/m³ NowCast41 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Bend Ponderosa Elementary School3 µg/m³ NowCast3.2 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Bend - Pump Station2 µg/m³ NowCast0.4 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Redmond High School2 µg/m³ NowCast16 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Prineville - Davidson Park2 µg/m³ NowCast29 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality Bend NE 8th & Emerson– NowCast1.1 mi · Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality

See the Oregon-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Oregon: Portland · Eugene · Medford · Salem · Klamath Falls · Roseburg · Pendleton · La Grande · The Dalles