Seattle, Washington — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM_2.5 and 48-hour smoke-model outlook — updated Oct 14, 5:38PM PDT

Current air quality and forecast

Now · observedGood 3 µg/m³ NowCast median across 4 monitors in City of Seattle · range 0–5, highest at Seattle-South Park

Next 48 hoursUnhealthy for Sensitive Groups 0–41 µg/m³ · 3 models

Forecast peak41 µg/m³Oct 16, 11:00AM · FireWork

Smoke is expected to arrive around Oct 16, 10:00AM.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Last 24 hours across City of Seattle & next 48 hours forecast

range across monitors

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate · ■ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups

Forecast

Next 6 hours

0–22 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM

Next 12 hours

0–22 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM

Next 24 hours

0–22 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM

Next 48 hours

0–41 µg/m³

Peak around Oct 16, 11:00AM

Next 24 hours — model comparison 3 models · 24-hour peak table

Model	Peak PM2.5	Peak around
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)	0 µg/m³	Oct 14, 9:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)	22 µg/m³	Oct 14, 9:00PM
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)	0 µg/m³	Oct 15, 5:00PM

Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Seattle; FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM_2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now

Clear sky

● At the ground · ● Overhead (if mixed down)

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed

Nearby fires

100 mi radius

Within 100 mi, agencies report 1 Not contained · 4 Partially contained · 2 Mostly contained (70%+) · 3 Other.

Not contained1 fire

WEST FORK

54 mi away · 310 acres · 16% contained · reported 2026-10-03 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Not contained

Partially contained4 fires

KING

51 mi away · 3,427 acres · 36% contained · reported 2026-10-03 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Partially contained

THREE QUEENS

52 mi away · 9,575 acres · 33% contained · reported 2026-10-12 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Partially contained

SISI

86 mi away · 4,615 acres · 34% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Partially contained

Luna

99 mi away · 8,553 acres · 42% contained · reported 2026-10-11 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Partially contained

Mostly contained (70%+)2 fires

LITTLE GIANT

75 mi away · 172,912 acres · 95% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Electric

83 mi away · 495 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-10 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Mostly contained (70%+)

Other status3 fires

LITTLE BEAR

17 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-12 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Containment not reported

BUMPING LAKE

70 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-12 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Containment not reported

MCKINLEY

71 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-14 · WA

distance measured to the incident point

Containment not reported

Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC); incident points and containment as reported by the responsible agencies.

Forecast track record here

29-day record · 16 nearby monitors

Model	Typical error	Tendency
HRRR-Smoke	5.9 µg/m³	reads low 5.8
FireSmoke	6.0 µg/m³	reads low 5.4
FireWork	6.2 µg/m³	reads high 5.2

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Monitors in City of Seattle

Seattle-South Park5 µg/m³ NowCast5.3 mi · Washington Department of Ecology Seattle-Beacon Hill4 µg/m³ NowCast2.8 mi · Washington Department of Ecology Seattle-Duwamish3 µg/m³ NowCast3.2 mi · Washington Department of Ecology Seattle-10th & Weller0 µg/m³ NowCast0.8 mi · Washington Department of Ecology

See the Washington-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Washington: Spokane · Yakima · Bellingham · Wenatchee · Kennewick · Olympia · Walla Walla · Omak · Vancouver