WildfireSmokeUSA

Helena, Montana — Wildfire Smoke Forecast

Live PM2.5 and 48-hour smoke-model outlook — updated Oct 14, 6:38PM MDT

Current air quality and forecast

Now · observedGood 6 µg/m³ NowCast · latest 5 µg/m³ at Helena
Next 48 hoursModerate 0–12 µg/m³ · 3 models
Forecast peak12 µg/m³Oct 15, 10:00PM · FireWork

No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.

Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.

Last 24 hours observed & next 48 hours forecast

20100now−24 h+24 h+48 hµg/m³

Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate

Forecast

Next 6 hours
0–8 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM
Next 12 hours
0–8 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 14, 9:00PM
Next 24 hours
0–10 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 15, 10:00AM
Next 48 hours
0–12 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 15, 10:00PM
Next 24 hours — model comparison 3 models · 24-hour peak table
ModelPeak PM2.5Peak around
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)0 µg/m³Oct 14, 8:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)10 µg/m³Oct 15, 10:00AM
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)0 µg/m³Oct 14, 11:00PM

Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Helena; FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value as the cautious planning number.

Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.

Sky vs. ground

Little smoke at the surface or overhead.

Sky right now
Partly cloudy — no smoke

● At the ground · ● Overhead (if mixed down)

0102012:00AM6:00AMµg/m³

Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed

Nearby fires

100 mi radius

Within 100 mi, agencies report 1 Not contained · 4 Mostly contained (70%+) · 1 Other.

Not contained1 fire
Nature Grove
95 mi away · 1,422 acres · 0% contained · reported 2026-10-09 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Not contained
Partially contained0 fires

No partially contained fires are reported in this state.

Mostly contained (70%+)4 fires
Bobcat Lakes
86 mi away · 10,896 acres · 95% contained · reported 2026-10-01 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Black Bear
93 mi away · 2,126 acres · 80% contained · reported 2026-10-09 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Sand Creek
94 mi away · 35,520 acres · 83% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Twin Sisters
100 mi away · 92 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-08 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Other status1 fire
MT-LG02-000788
72 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-14 · MT
distance measured to the incident point
Containment not reported

Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC); incident points and containment as reported by the responsible agencies.

Forecast track record here

29-day record · 2 nearby monitors

ModelTypical errorTendency
HRRR-Smoke3.4 µg/m³reads low 2.8
FireWork3.8 µg/m³reads high 1.2
FireSmoke36.1 µg/m³reads high 31.0

Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.

Nearest monitoring stations

Helena6 µg/m³ NowCast5.0 mi · Montana DEQSleeping Giant1 µg/m³ NowCast18 mi · Montana DEQButte EBAM5 µg/m³ NowCast47 mi · Montana DEQ

See the Montana-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →

More in Montana: Missoula · Billings · Great Falls · Kalispell · Bozeman · Hamilton · Butte